I tweeted earlier this week questioning the on going success of the Egyptian and Tunisian social uprising and the failed Iranian uprising of 2009. I think Brian for some very thoughtful input. I am not planning on this blog post to be a long winded history lesson. I also know it will not be my answer to the question of what is the difference between the uprisings. I am looking to find out what questions to ask not for the answers to those questions yet.
The Iranian uprising followed rigged elections in a state that is ran by an oligarchy . The Tunisian revolt was against economic and social oppression of a military dictatorship. The Egyptian revolt is against economic and social oppression by an elected party and President, which may have won a rigged election but it was years ago. Egypt and Tunisia are majority Sunni while Iran is Shia. Economic and social oppression seem to be a similarity.
Does the geography of the nations have any input for the success in the latter 2 and the failure of the first? North Africa verses Persia? What about the colonial past of the 3 nations? How does each nations recent history play into the outcome of the uprising? Iran has been in a state of war or under the threat of war for over 20 years. Egypt has been at peace since the Yom Kippur war with Israel in 1973. Tunisia has been a dictatorship without major conflicts since it won its independence from France in 1957. It has only had 2 leaders since then until the recent revolt.
The military also seems to be a common thread in all three. Iran's military helped keep the regime in power. The Tunisia the military supported the Prime Minister over the president. In Egypt, the military so far has said they will not fire upon the people but will keep the peace. Has the recent past history of military use in each nation influenced how each handled the revolts? Is there a deeper meaning to the actions of each military?
All the nations are different. All have their own problems. All of them have enough in common to try to find out what has led to the fall of at least 1 dictatorship but not the other.
Please add questions and answers if you have any. Brian brought up some really good questions when I first thought about this topic. So here is copy of those unedited.
Jim Milburn
The Iranian uprising followed rigged elections in a state that is ran by an oligarchy . The Tunisian revolt was against economic and social oppression of a military dictatorship. The Egyptian revolt is against economic and social oppression by an elected party and President, which may have won a rigged election but it was years ago. Egypt and Tunisia are majority Sunni while Iran is Shia. Economic and social oppression seem to be a similarity.
Does the geography of the nations have any input for the success in the latter 2 and the failure of the first? North Africa verses Persia? What about the colonial past of the 3 nations? How does each nations recent history play into the outcome of the uprising? Iran has been in a state of war or under the threat of war for over 20 years. Egypt has been at peace since the Yom Kippur war with Israel in 1973. Tunisia has been a dictatorship without major conflicts since it won its independence from France in 1957. It has only had 2 leaders since then until the recent revolt.
The military also seems to be a common thread in all three. Iran's military helped keep the regime in power. The Tunisia the military supported the Prime Minister over the president. In Egypt, the military so far has said they will not fire upon the people but will keep the peace. Has the recent past history of military use in each nation influenced how each handled the revolts? Is there a deeper meaning to the actions of each military?
All the nations are different. All have their own problems. All of them have enough in common to try to find out what has led to the fall of at least 1 dictatorship but not the other.
Please add questions and answers if you have any. Brian brought up some really good questions when I first thought about this topic. So here is copy of those unedited.
Jim Milburn
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